Will history repeat itself?

“The Vice President’s popularity and her father’s still-strong base could pose a formidable challenge to Marcos Jr., should they choose to withdraw their support entirely.

The shadow of history looms large over President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., and the recent remarks — or lack thereof — of former President Rodrigo Duterte have ignited a flurry of speculation.

Duterte’s calculated silence during a press conference when asked about allegations of corruption in key institutions such as PhilHealth, the Maharlika Investment Fund, and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), coupled with the escalating feud between Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, raises questions about the stability of the Marcos administration.

“Will President Marcos suffer the same fate as his father?” This question by a journalist was more than rhetorical; it invites a deeper look into the confluence of political dynamics, public discontent, and historical parallels.

Ferdinand Marcos Sr. was ousted through the People Power Revolution in 1986, a watershed moment in Philippine history. His downfall was rooted in allegations of rampant corruption, human rights abuses, and an economy crippled by cronyism.

The parallels with the current administration, while not identical, are hard to ignore. The controversy surrounding PhilHealth’s financial woes and GSIS’s alleged irregularities add fuel to the fire, painting a picture of governance plagued by inefficiency and distrust.

Moreover, the ongoing verbal sparring between Marcos Jr. and Vice President Duterte has created a fissure within the administration, reminiscent of the political infighting during the waning days of the Marcos Sr. regime. The Vice President’s sharp criticisms and hints of political maneuvering, combined with her break from the Marcos coalition, suggest a growing dissatisfaction within the political elite — an early warning sign of instability.

Former President Duterte’s refusal to address rumors of military unrest or calls for a withdrawal of support from Marcos Jr. is telling. Duterte has always been a polarizing figure, known for his blunt rhetoric and populist appeal. His silence could be a tactical move, allowing him to remain a kingmaker while gauging the pulse of the armed forces and the public.

The military’s loyalty is crucial in this country, where power transitions are often swayed by their stance. A divided military was instrumental in the downfall of Marcos Sr., and any cracks in the current chain of command could spell trouble for Marcos Jr.

The former president’s silence also raises questions about whether he is tacitly endorsing or merely observing the growing dissent against the administration. If Duterte, who remains influential among the masses and the military, were to publicly challenge Marcos Jr., it could tilt the balance of power.

The public’s growing frustration with corruption allegations compounds the administration’s woes. While Marcos Jr. has repeatedly touted his vision of a “New Philippines,” tangible progress remains elusive. Inflation, rising poverty, and inadequate responses to disasters like recent floods in Luzon have eroded public trust. The controversies surrounding the Maharlika Fund and PhilHealth only amplify perceptions of greed and incompetence.

Social media, a powerful tool for mobilization, has amplified calls for accountability. Unlike in 1986, dissent now spreads at the speed of a tweet. The question of whether the public is ready to replicate a People Power movement depends on whether dissatisfaction reaches a boiling point.

The Vice President’s popularity and her father’s still-strong base could pose a formidable challenge to Marcos Jr., should they choose to withdraw their support entirely.

If the Marcos-Duterte alliance crumbles, it could pave the way for a broader opposition movement, potentially uniting disparate factions dissatisfied with Marcos Jr.’s leadership. History has shown that Philippine leaders who ignore the warning signs — growing dissent, military discontent, and an emboldened opposition — do so at their peril.

If Marcos Jr. continues to ignore the echoes of his father’s downfall, he may find himself standing on the same precipice. In the end, the fate of his presidency may hinge not on the sins of his father, but on his own ability to lead and unite a nation increasingly restless for change.