The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said consumer confidence index weakened in the second quarter this year from the overall impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon and uncertainties in the job market. But the outlook for the next quarter turned out to be positive.

In its Second Quarter Consumer Expectation Survey, conducted between April 5 and 16, this year, the central bank said that overall consumer sentiment declined to -28.7 percent from -27.6 percent in the first quarter this year.

“The weaker confidence index was brought by concerns over the impact of the El Nino dry spell on agricultural output and near-term uncertainties in the job market as new graduates enter the labor force,” Rosabel Guerrero, director of the central bank’s Department of Economic Statistics, said in a press briefing on Thursday.

But the survey showed that high and middle-income groups look forward to more favorable economic conditions with confidence index of -2.8 percent and -1.5 percent, respectively, from -9.3 percent and -4.2 percent.

The positive outlook for the next quarter mirrored the rebound in consumer confidence in other countries such as the United States, China, Mexico, Hungary, Slovenia and Czech Republic.

The low-income group, meanwhile, expect higher family income with confidence sentiment at 5.6 percent from 2.4 percent during the first quarter.

But with favorable expectations over the fresh mandate to be exercised by newly-elected national and local government officials, consumer confidence over the next 12 months turned more optimistic.

In particular, Guerrero said, the next three months’ confidence index jumped to 10 percent from 5.1 percent a quarter ago and -7.6 percent during the same period last year.

It has been the second highest level in consumer optimism since the nationwide survey started in 2007, although the pessimists continued to outnumber the optimists but only by a small margin, Guerrero noted.

The high-income group had the most upbeat outlook on the country’s economic condition in the next 12 months at 22.5 percent, followed by the middle-income group, 16.4 percent and the low-income group at 1 percent.

Low-income group most confident
Meanwhile, the low-income group registered the biggest improvement in outlook with respect to their family income for the next twelve months at 10 percent, followed by the middle-income group at 22.9 percent. The optimism of both groups on their family income was at their highest level in nine quarters since second quarter of 2008, while the sentiment of the high-income group declined but remained buoyant at 25.8 percent from 28.8 percent during the first quarter.

Fewer households expect that their expenditures on basic goods and services would go up in the third quarter at 42.6 percent from 44.6 percent in the first quarter. Except for water consumption, up 34.4 percent from 32.6 percent, and transportation from 46.2 percent to 48.7 percent, the spending outlook decreased for all other basic commodities.

“This view is consistent with expectations of lower inflation rates for the year ahead,” Guerrero said.

Buying intentions for the next 12 months also continue to be steady at 6.8 percent from 7.3 percent during the previous quarter.

The broadly steady outlook of consumers on buying conditions was carried over to the next 12 months. This outlook on buying intentions was observed for both the National Capital Region and areas outside Metro Manila, the central bank said.

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