War has gripped the Middle East, but the turmoil is giving Russia an opportunity

Putin has held calls this week with the presidents of Iran, the U.S and the United Arab Emirates. Last week, he spoke with the emir of Qatar, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the king of Bahrain.

The Kremlin wants to exert influence in the Middle East and has publicly said its support for Iran, a strategic ally, is unwavering.

But experts say there are limits on how far the Kremlin will go. Russia does not want to antagonize Washington, and its military remains stretched by its four-year war in Ukraine.

There are also potential economic benefits. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on energy infrastructure have helped drive a global energy shock, lifting oil prices — including for Russia’s heavily sanctioned exports.

Russia’s opportunity

On Monday, as oil prices spiked well over $100 US a barrel, Putin taunted the European Union, saying Russia would gladly keep selling crude to European countries if they agreed to become long-term customers.

If not, he said Russia was assessing whether it could shut off its energy supplies completely ahead of the EU plans to ban imports.

“I think Russia sees short-term benefits in this war,” said Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia nonproliferation program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

“There are elevated oil prices and Patriot interceptors are being diverted to the Middle East, alongside political attention.”

What began as strikes against Iran has embroiled the entire region, with Tehran launching missiles and drones at neighbouring countries, including Turkey, a NATO member.

Iran’s attacks and continued threats against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have paralyzed shipping traffic through a corridor that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits.

On Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, ⁠spokesperson for Tehran’s ​Khatam al-Anbiya military command ​headquarters, warned the U.S., Israel and their allies to brace for $200 US barrel oil, saying any tankers headed in their direction “will be a legitimate target.”

Talk of sanction relief

In an effort to calm market fears, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the U.S. was going to take sanctions off “some countries” temporarily.

He did not provide details. A week earlier, the U.S. offered India relief from the supply pressures by allowing its refiners to purchase Russian oil already on tankers at sea.

European leaders have called for sanctions on Russia to remain in place, and Sergei Pikin, a Moscow-based director of the Energy Development Fund, doubts Washington will ease restrictions broadly.

Still, he told CBC news that if higher prices last beyond the short term, Russia’s budget revenues will rise.

“It is obvious that shipments from the Middle East are not so reliable anymore, that transportation risks are enormous. Tomorrow could be even worse,” he told CBC news in a Zoom interview.

“This really plays into Russia’s hands, because Russia continues to supply what it has to China, India and a number of other countries.”

Pikin said volatility in the oil prices this week shows the uncertainty around how things will progress in the region. He says how long the energy crisis will last largely depends on U.S. decisions.

Growing deficits

Russia has been grappling with worsening budget pressures, driven by high military spending, a slowing economy and weaker energy prices. Oil and gas revenues fell 44 per cent in February compared with the same month a year earlier.

Russia’s 2026 budget is based around oil being sold at $59 US a barrel. Before the U.S. and Israel launched its strikes on Feb. 28, it was selling well below that benchmark. In recent days, they have risen well above it. 

But while Russia may benefit financially in the short term, the ongoing attacks on Iran also put the billions of dollars it has invested in the country in jeopardy. Russia is one of Iran’s largest foreign investors and has poured money into gas projects.

Notte said strikes could impair some of Russia’s investments, but a “battered, weakened Iran” could also become more reliant on Moscow, giving Russia added leverage.

Iran helped Russia early on in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine by supplying Shahed drones — the same type now being launched at Iran’s Gulf neighbours — and by helping Russia establish a factory to ramp up domestic production.

Strategic partner

There have been reports in U.S. media that Russia has been helping Iran militarily, including by advising on drone tactics and providing satellite imagery.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told CNBC on Tuesday that Russia said it was not sharing intelligence with Iran about U.S. military assets in the Middle East, adding that “we can take them at their word.”

Notte, who co-authored a paper in September on Iran and Russia’s defence partnership, said Russia is likely providing some targeting data and operational advice, but doubts Moscow would become directly involved.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested in a post on X that Russia could consider sending ground troops to Iran, but Notte said that is off the table.

What is more likely, she said, is that Russia will continue to shield Iran diplomatically at the UN Security Council, where Moscow holds a permanent seat and veto power.