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An LPG retailer worker arranges 11-kilogram gas tanks at a distribution outlet on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, as prices are set to increase by around ₱110 per tank on April 1, 2026, driven by higher international contract prices and rising shipping costs amid tensions in the Middle East. (Photo by: Manny Palmero)
DIESEL prices are rapidly climbing and could move closer to the P200-per-liter mark as intensifying hostilities in the Middle East continue to disrupt global oil supply, raising concerns over the Philippines’ vulnerability to external shocks, officials said Monday.
Industry estimates indicate that diesel could reach as high as P170.10 per liter by today (Tuesday) following a fresh round of price hikes, including an increase of nearly P20 per liter by some oil companies.
The surge reflects the sharp pass-through of international crude price movements to local pump prices, a recurring feature of the country’s deregulated oil market.
Gasoline prices are also set to rise, with projections indicating an increase of P5.90 per liter, bringing pump prices to as much as P119.90 per liter. Current gasoline prices range from P81 to P114 per liter.
Kerosene, commonly used by lower-income households for cooking and lighting, is likewise expected to spike.
Prices could reach P178 per liter following a projected P9.10 increase, up from the current range of P149.89 to P168.90 per liter.
The impact is not limited to liquid fuels. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), widely used for household cooking, has also seen steep price increases.
The Republic Gas Corp. (Regasco) announced a final staggered increase of P16 per kilogram for LPG effective April 6, bringing the total hike to P176 for an 11-kilogram tank. As a result, the suggested retail price for LPG in Luzon now ranges from P1,488 to P1,600 per 11-kg tank.
An industry source told Manila Standard it would be difficult to speculate how domestic pump prices will move, as it would depend on the developments in the Middle East.
“If the conflict continues to escalate, diesel MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore) will most likely rise further, including the premium which will also increase because of the continuing tightness in supply,” the source said.
The source added that in the last trading on April 2, diesel MOPS reached more than $290 a barrel. In Monday’s trading, the projection was already near $300 a barrel.
“The P200 per liter diesel price can happen, but not soon though. However, if the tensions continue to rise and (with) no signals of de-escalation in sight, it will cause MOPS to increase further,” the source said.
Diesel prices have nearly tripled since Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel began their operations against Iran that has thrown the Middle East into disarray.
Regular diesel prices were averaging a little over P60 a liter for the week of Feb. 24 to March 2, Department of Energy (DOE) monitoring data showed.
Asked whether diesel could hit P200 per liter if the geopolitical crisis worsens, Petron Corp. chairman Ramon Ang responded cautiously: “I hope not.”
The latest DOE data, for the week of March 31 to April 6, showed diesel prices in the National Capital Region ranging from P110 to P150.30 per liter prior to the latest adjustments.
The projected increases would push prices well beyond recent historical highs, placing significant pressure on transport operators, businesses, and households, industry officials warned.
Major oil firms have begun implementing adjustments. Petron announced a one-time increase of P18.80 per liter for diesel, P4.90 for gasoline, and P8.10 for kerosene.
Jetti Petroleum, meanwhile, opted to delay its price hike—P18.60 per liter for diesel and P5.40 for kerosene—until April 10 in a bid to cushion the immediate impact on consumers.
The DOE had not responded to requests for comment as of press time.
The upward trajectory in fuel prices comes amid heightened instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies pass.
In Tehran, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced they were completing preparations to enforce new operating conditions in the strait, which has been largely restricted since the outbreak of hostilities involving the United States and Israel entering its sixth week.
“The IRGC naval force is completing operational preparations for the Iranian authorities’ declared plan for the new Persian Gulf order,” the Guards’ naval forces said in a statement posted on social media.
They warned that conditions in the strait “will never return to its former status, especially for the US and Israel.”
The statement followed renewed threats from US President Donald Trump to strike Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if the vital shipping route is not reopened.
Since the conflict began, Iran has allowed only limited maritime traffic through the waterway, significantly disrupting global energy flows. Oman’s state news agency reported that Iran and Oman have held talks aimed at easing passage through the strait, though it remains effectively closed due to ongoing tensions.
Iranian lawmakers have also proposed imposing tolls and taxes on vessels traversing the waterway, adding another layer of uncertainty for global shipping and energy markets.
The ripple effects are being felt in the Philippines, where fuel price increases quickly translate into higher transportation costs, food prices, and overall inflation. The country remains heavily dependent on imported oil, leaving it exposed to international price volatility.
Regasco president Arnel Ty attributed the increase in cooking gas to higher international contract prices and rising logistics costs. He emphasized that LPG is entirely imported, making it particularly sensitive to global market disruptions.
“If prices exceed those levels, consumers can complain to their barangay or the Philippine National Police because of a memorandum of agreement between the DOE and the Philippine National Police,” Ty said. “Anything over P1,600 (per 11-liter tank) is overpriced.”
Ty added that current supply levels appear sufficient to meet demand until mid-May, including shipments already in transit. However, he expressed concern about procurement for June, given the uncertain global environment.
The DOE is reportedly exploring options to procure LPG for storage in facilities operated by oil companies, as part of contingency planning.
Amid these developments, lawmakers are pushing for policy reforms to better shield consumers from extreme price volatility.
House Senior Deputy Minority Leader and Mamamayang Liberal Party-list Rep. Leila de Lima has filed House Bill 8824, which seeks to amend Republic Act 8479, or the Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Act of 1998.
The proposed measure aims to address what De Lima described as “material gaps” in the law, particularly in areas such as consumer protection, price transparency, and the government’s ability to respond to extraordinary price shocks.
“Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have underscored the urgency of strengthening the legal framework governing the downstream oil industry,” De Lima said.
“Sharp escalations in fuel prices demonstrate the extraordinary pass-through of international price shocks to domestic pump prices during periods of conflict.”
“In the face of extraordinary global oil volatility, the State cannot sit idly by while the Filipino people bear the full and immediate burden of surging fuel prices,” she added.
“The State must be able to act decisively, lawfully, and accountably to secure fair competition, protect consumers, and preserve economic stability.”
Beyond immediate price concerns, the government is also pursuing longer-term strategies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
The Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) said it is advancing efforts to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can reduce carbon emissions by up to 65 to 80 percent compared to conventional jet fuel.
“We reaffirm our commitment to making SAF adoption more viable and accessible, leveraging collaboration between government, industry, and private partners to shape a sustainable and forward-looking Philippine aviation sector,” CAAP Director General Raul Del Rosario said.
CAAP recently conducted a policy development workshop covering feedstock availability, production technologies, regulatory support, and investment opportunities related to SAF.
Officials noted that the Philippines is well-positioned for the transition due to its strong agricultural sector, particularly rice and coconut production, which can provide raw materials for biofuel production.
While such initiatives aim to build resilience over the long term, analysts warn that the immediate outlook remains challenging as long as geopolitical tensions persist.
Republic Act 8479 was enacted to liberalize the downstream oil industry, promote competition, and ensure a steady supply of petroleum products at fair prices, De Lima noted
While the law has succeeded in opening the market to new players and reducing the dominance of major oil firms, the lawmaker argued that it has also limited the government’s ability to intervene during crises.
— Alena Mae S. Flores, Maricel Cruz & Joel E. Zurbano with AFP
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Credit belongs to: www.manilastandard.net
