‘Super’ El Niño didn’t cause this year’s fires and heat waves, but it’s about to take us on a ‘wild ride’

Ocean-warming phenomenon could be historic, as it combines with human-caused climate change, scientists say

An image of two people in the dark of night facing mountains, on the other side of a lake, illuminated by the orange flames from a wildfire burning trees along the ridges. — A very strong El Niño developing in the southern Pacific Ocean will disrupt global weather patterns in the months ahead, but climate scientists say it’s not something we can attribute to the heat waves and wildfires that raged across the northern hemisphere this summer, like the ones in British Columbia’s interior earlier this month. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

Whether you call it a “super” El Niño or a “Godzilla” El Niño, the Pacific Ocean warming event that disrupts global weather patterns is back and packing a punch, at a time when many parts of the planet are already overheated.

This July was the hottest on record for North America and Europe, where successive heat waves have led to thousands of heat-related deaths, dried up rivers and fire-scorched landscapes. That includes Canada, which has already seen more than 4.1 million hectares of woodland go up in flames and produce thick smoke that blanketed much of the eastern half of the country and parts of the northern U.S.

Although this scorching summer aligned with the arrival of an El Niño and climate scientists say it’s not to blame for those devastating extreme weather events. However, they note we may only be starting to see how this naturally occurring phenomenon could amplify extreme weather already super-charged by fossil-fuel driven climate change.

“El Niño’s impacts are going to be large and broad across a huge area,” said Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

“Get ready, because it’s going to be a wild ride.”

El Niño expected to add fuel to climate disasters

The UN’s weather agency is warning that the return of El Niño will make temperatures even higher this summer, which they also warn will exacerbate climate disasters, including drought and wildfires.

Flipping the weather upside down

El Niños occur naturally every three to seven years, usually beginning in spring and enduring well into the following year, as the water surface temperature in the area of the Pacific where they form along the equator, rises at least 0.5 C above the average.

Willis says that warming heats up the air above the water and “rearranges the atmosphere.”

“It flips the weather upside down,” he said, causing drier places to get heavier rainfall and wetter regions to dry up.

A satellite map of the world using a yellow, orange, red and brown colour gradient to demonstrate warmer than average sea surface temperatures. — A satellite map from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea surface temperature anomalies recorded on Aug. 20, with hotter than average temperatures stretching across the El Niño region toward the west coast of South America. (NOAA)

Although this El Niño may have begun forming in May and June just as successive heat waves and fires began to scorch the northern hemisphere, Willis says they usually don’t start to impact northern places like Canada until they peak in the late fall and winter.

But Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) at New York’s Columbia University, says this El Niño is so unprecedented that while he can’t directly link it to current heat and wildfire conditions, he does wonder if the “exceptional” temperatures associated with it could be contributing to these disasters.

At the very least, he thinks it’s grounds for more research

Ehsen says this El Niño is on track to rival those experienced in 2015-16 and 1997-98, the strongest El Niños since official records began in 1950.

What exactly is a ‘super’ El Niño? And what does it mean for you?

Some climate models predict 2026 will be an El Niño year — and that it’ll be a particularly strong one. CBC’s Nick Logan breaks down what that means, and what Canadians can expect.

What to expect when you’re expecting El Niño

Models suggest much of Canada and the northern U.S. can expect a warmer winter than usual due to this El Niño, with British Columbia‘s normally wet south coast potentially seeing far less precipitation and a much lower snowpack.

The southern U.S., meanwhile, is likely to experience a much wetter winter.

There are also noticeable effects happening right now in the tropics that Willis says are likely associated with El Niño. He says the phenomenon “sort of juices up” conditions that may already be occuring.

Peru and Ecuador sit at the eastern edge of the El Niño region, where Willis says a lot of warm water has “smashed up” against the coast, posing a threat to fisheries.

Peru is also bracing for heavy rains and flooding in some areas and drought in many inland regions.

“But we’re also beginning to see a lot of drought away from the equator,” Willis said, highlighting a prolonged lack of rainfall in Panama, which is already affecting water levels in the lake that supplies the Panama Canal.

At the opposite end of the El Niño region are countries like Indonesia, which is already experiencing a much longer and more active wildfire season.

A wide shot of a young man wearing a blue bodysuit and red cape standing with his back turned, as he sprays a fire house toward burning brush and trees. A smoke plume can be seen rising in the background amid the blackened tree trunks. — 16-year-old Rudiyansah wears a Superman costume while extinguishing a fire at a wildfire-affected area in Indonesia’s Central Kalimantan province on Aug. 14. (Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters)

One thing people in North America can see happening now, Willis says, is the change to the hurricane season. In an El Niño year, there are fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

“The jet stream, which is migrating a little bit farther south, tends to shear off the top of the hurricanes in the Atlantic,” he said.

“And because we have all this warm water in the Eastern Pacific, it fuels storm generation there and tropical storms and depressions, which might not have been hurricanes otherwise.”

The Eastern Pacific season has already recorded nine named storms ahead of peak season — including Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve in late July and Lala, which caused significant damage as a tropical storm on Hawaii’s Big Island last week.

Tropical Storm Lala leaves destruction across Hawaii

Despite not making a direct hit, Tropical Storm Lala left widespread destruction on Hawaii’s Big Island. Lala was downgraded from hurricane status on Sunday morning, but forecasters warned it remained powerful and dangerous

An El Niño born into a much warmer world

The record heat and wildfires this summer were the result of human-caused climate change, which has already been attributed for the past four years being the hottest on record, says Zachary Labe, climate scientist at U.S.-based nonprofit organization Climate Central.

“El Niño is just sort of a temporary boost on top of this long-term trend,” Labe said.

But such a significant warming event happening in a world that’s even hotter due to climate change could, he says, defy expectations climate scientists have based on previous data.

A photo of a container ship waiting in the lock of the Panama Canal, with a smaller pilot vessel on the water behind it. — Authorities in Panama have begun restricting shipping through the Panama Canal, seen in this March 13 file photo, as the country copes with drought conditions exacerbated by El Niño. (Enea Lebrun/Reuters)

Labe says what’s more certain is that we’ll be dealing with the effects of this El Niño well into 2027.

“Because it takes time for that El Niño to have all that heat that’s building up in the ocean to transfer into the atmosphere,” he said.

“So, this will be around with us for at least the next six to 12 months.”

Climate change ‘loading the dice’ for extreme weather, says climate scientist

Katharine Hayhoe, global chief scientist with Nature Conservancy, says that while powerful storms and disastrous wildfires have always happened, global climate change has created conditions that make them more likely to occur. — Nick Logan

With files from Nicole Mortillaro