Atin Ito First Filipino Community Newspaper in Ontario
With only one and a half months remaining in 2023, the Marcos administration is pinning its hopes that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 7.3 percent year-on-year for the fourth quarter to attain at least six percent, the low end of its growth target of up to seven percent for the entire year.
This hopeful outlook was expressed by Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan as he noted that first, the year-on-year 5.9 percent GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is a marked improvement from the 4.3 percent growth in the second quarter; and that secondly, the Philippine economy chalked up the best growth performance among Southeast Asian countries that have announced their third-quarter GDP growth: Vietnam at 5.3 percent, Indonesia and China at 4.9 percent, and Malaysia at 3.3 percent.
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB): “Growth slowed down for most economies in Southeast Asia. Deceleration reflected the cumulative effects of rising inflation, monetary tightening, and weaker global demand for manufactured goods from key trading partners. However, robust domestic demand and continued recovery of the services sector—particularly tourism—have contributed to better job and income prospects, keeping growth close to its long-run average. Growth in agriculture is also affected by the early onset of El Niño.”
While inflation has decelerated to 4.9 percent in October, the government continues to fortify vulnerable sectors likely to be affected by the intensifying impact of the El Niño phenomenon. Contingency measures, including emergency employment, are being readied, to cushion its likely ill effects. Adequacy of food supply is the government’s key concern, in view of the possible decline in agricultural production.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing grew by a measly .9 percent, compared to Industry’s 5.5 percent and Services’ 6.8 percent growth in the third quarter. Hence, the government continues to implement structural reforms, including liberalization measures that would promote investment, boost growth and thereby promote higher-quality employment, according to the National Economic and Development Authority.
Among the key measures is the newly-enhanced Public-Private Partnership Act that would enable greater private sector participation in the country’s infrastructure development. Recall that during the previous administration, key infrastructure programs were pushed to the back burner not just by the coronavirus pandemic but by the lack of funding. A shift in strategy from public-private partnerships (PPP) to official development assistance (ODA) did not prosper as benefactor-countries failed to follow through on their commitments.
A strong last-quarter performance depends on stronger household consumption during the Christmas season. Government spending, which already increased to 6.7 percent as budget disbursements accelerated, should be matched by increased capital formation.
Regardless of the eventual GDP growth figure that would be attained at year-end, the government must not waver in its determination to achieve the long-term goals of the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028, including the attainment of upper-middle income status by 2025, and the aspirations embodied in AmBisyon Natin 2040: “Matatag, maginhawa, at panatag na buhay para sa lahat” – a stable, comfortable and secure life for all Filipinos.
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Credit belongs to: www.mb.com.ph
