American equation

Beijing has imposed its will over the maritime expanse that it claims under the invalidated nine-dash line.

Amid the intensifying friction between the Philippines and China in the West Philippine Sea, the United States remains the counterbalance despite Beijing’s insistence that the superpower exit from the territorial dispute.

It would seem that the US, indeed, is the deterrent factor that keeps China treading carefully in the maritime row using a maneuver that experts classify as “gray tactics,” which are aggressive acts that are just below actual armed confrontation.

The use of water cannons, military-grade lasers, and lately ear-splitting sonic devices are components of the Chinese maneuver that the US could counter in similar fashion to avoid direct confrontation, according to the state-backed US Institute of Peace.

“US responses to China’s gray tactics should be ‘vigorous and explicit,’ ” it added.

The think tank said the 10 December State Department expression of support for the Philippines, underscoring that an armed attack against Philippine forces anywhere would trigger the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty was a good start.

The US then could play China’s game to make its messages clear and convince China to de-escalate.

USIP’s Senior Advisor for the China Program Dean Cheng said an option available to the US is to undertake sharper responses in the Red Sea to Houthi attacks on shipping.

“This is not to suggest that China is somehow behind those attacks. But Beijing is watching US actions globally, and a failure to respond to attacks on US ships is likely to mislead Beijing into seeing weakness and ambivalence, rather than commitment,” Cheng indicated.

Tangible support for the Philippine position should also be shown by using the US Coast Guard instead of its Navy.

Since the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled, in a legally binding decision, that China had no lawful claims to the waters around Second Thomas Shoal, the United States could dispatch one or more of its Coast Guard cutters to work alongside Philippine vessels in Philippine waters.

The Coast Guard ships need not be a close escort, but this would compel Beijing to carefully consider whether it wants to risk interacting with a US government vessel.

According to Cheng, the deployment of civilian ships instead of the US Navy would signal resolve without necessarily drawing in military forces.

“It would also demonstrate to Beijing that two can play the ‘legal warfare’ game,” Cheng said.

If China chooses to intensify its interference operations, the US can show parallel support for Japan in its territorial dispute with China.

“The US position on the Senkaku Islands has been that, while the United States takes no position on the ultimate sovereignty and disposition of the islands, the US-Japan mutual defense treaty’s commitments apply to all areas under the ‘administrative control’ of Tokyo,” Cheng said.

The US could take a parallel position on the Second Thomas Shoal, making clear that, while it does not take a position on sovereignty claims within the West Philippine Sea, it does oppose any unilateral alteration of the status quo.

Therefore, Cheng said, the Mutual Defense Treaty, or MDT, not only applies to any “armed attacks” but also to any efforts to compel a change in areas under the “administrative control” of the Philippines.

While US officials maintain that America’s commitment to the Philippines is “ironclad,” Beijing thus far has imposed its will over the maritime expanse that it claims under the invalidated nine-dash line.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration dismissed the historical claim of China over the entire WPS. The problem is that the US is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas on which the award was based and China never recognized the arbitral proceedings.

By citing the freedom of navigation and its duty to the world to protect it, the US can act as an equalizer in the hotly contested maritime region.

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