Atin Ito First Filipino Community Newspaper in Ontario
Local business leaders are cautiously optimistic about the country’s economic growth in the coming year as continuing challenges in the areas of geopolitics, ease of doing business, and overall global economic slowdown are weighing down on investors’ confidence, but remained positive that the domestic economy will continue to outperform its neighbors.
Business leaders from the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), International Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (ICCP), Philippine Exporters Confederation (Philexport), and Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP), were one in voicing similar sentiment.
ICCP Founding Chairman Francis Chua was the most optimistic for 2024 as he described the positive vibe of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., who has been aggressively promoting the Philippines to foreign investors as an investment destination. “Always great because we have the President as the greatest salesman for the country,” he said.
Chua even urged the government to ensure more local production of all kinds of products because “China will buy anything from us” from minerals to agriculture products such as bananas and durian.
Chua also pointed out that China is not causing any trouble nor wanting to harm us. “Otherwise, it could have drowned our boat easily,” he said. What the government should do with China is deal with them on the economics side, he urged.
But George Barcelon, PCCI president, noted of a somehow lost momentum in the fourth quarter. He described the fourth quarter as “gasping for breath”.
“We lost the momentum this December, it is like we are in a lowbat mode, hiningal tayo (gasping for breath),” observed Barcelon.
“We’ve not started the new year yet and we are already lowbat,” he said.
Despite efforts to fight red tape, Barcelon said that the ease of doing business in the country is found wanting as he noted layers of bureaucratic red tape, especially at the local government units, for projects dealing with the Department of Environment and Natural Resources and the acquiring of construction permits.
Barcelon further cited the slow inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) into the country as he blamed the geopolitics that could have discouraged investors to choose the Philippines.
Aside from geopolitics and bureaucratic red tape, Barcelon also mentioned the high cost of power, which is a major hurdle for investors. But, one thing going for the economy was the appointment of a new agriculture secretary.
He then urged for a stronger plan for the economy and policies to minimize red tape. While there can be nothing the government can do on geopolitics, he said something should be done locally to support growth.
Philexport President Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. agreed with Barcelon for a cautious optimism in the coming year.
“I think we will miss the original growth target 6-8 percent GDP, we can probably make 6.5 percent GDP. I don’t think we will hit 7,” he said. Despite a slower growth, he expressed confidence that the local economy “will still be one of the fastest (growing) in Asia because all will also slowdown. So, we will be doing better than others.”
The government has already revised down its growth target for 2024, to 6.5-7.5 percent from the 6.5-8 percent range, as inflation and tepid consumer spending weigh on the economy.
“This year we will slowdown, so hardly 6 percent most likely,” Ortiz-Luis added.
To support growth, he encourages more government spending and no delays in the disbursement of funds.
The weakest link, he said, is the ease of doing business, plus the confidence issue especially on the respect for contracts.
Ortiz-Luis again reiterated the cancellation of contracts on the reclamation projects and some railway projects funded by the Chinese government.
He urged Marcos to continue going on trips overseas to promote the Philippines to foreign investors.
For the private sector, he said, “our role is to help in jobs creation. But, we should improve our policies,” he reiterated.
On the proposed charter change, Ortiz-Luis said that most people are confused. Thus, he urged Congress to clarify what exactly they want to do with the planned charter change.
“We are divided in the private sector,” he said.
ECOP Chairman Edgardo G. Lacson said that private enterprises conditionally accept the government projection of almost an identical GDP growth of 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2024 compared to 2023.
“The economy is expected to remain slightly unchanged in 2024 compared to 2023 as we continue to do the same things since we gained independence in 1898 or 1946,” said Lacson.
He said that major dollar earners and sources like OFWs, BPOs, product exports, tourism and FDI’s will continue to adequately support balance of payment and maintain the present currency exchange rate in the range of P56-P58 to a US dollar.
“National debt despite the relative success of the Private Public Partnership program will continue to rise as the country remains a net importer and needs huge budgetary outlay for infrastructure, bloated bureaucracy and heightened security concerns in protecting our territorial integrity from the threat of China in the West Philippine Sea,” Lacson said.
He expects food production to remain short due to climate change, inadequate farm to market roads, inefficient post harvest facilities, restrictive comprehensive land reform act, declining interest in low income farming, weak banking support for Agri-Agra loans, and worsening WPS conflict.
In particular, he pointed out that about 90 percent of the country’s salt, a basic nutrient commodity, will continue to be imported until the 1995 ASIN law is amended.
“These national narratives have not abated and still par for the course since the ‘80s which has kept the Philippines in the lower rung of the global economy ranking. We need to lessen our passion for debates and focus on concerted action to push our national development forward,” he said.
“The whole of government and society need to support PBBM’s revitalized economic programs by reducing the political noise and set aside differences in ideological, political and economic policy differences,” Lacson concluded. — Bernie Cahiles-Magkilat
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