Toronto gun violence dropped 30% in 5 years. Can the city keep up the trend?

Toronto gun violence continued its downward trend in 2023, after hitting a record-high five years ago.

In 2019, the Toronto Police Service’spublic safety data portal logged 469 shootings and firearm discharges, which killed or harmed 270 people by the end of the year.

As of Dec. 20, 2023, those figures were down by roughly 30 per cent to 326, with 153 people killed or injured.

“That decrease is very significant as you see other jurisdictions in Canada, in the U.S. that are increasing in their shootings and increasing in their homicides,” said Supt. Steve Watts, with Toronto police’s organized crime enforcement unit.

“We are a bit of an outlier there and I’m very proud of that.”

Watts attributes Toronto’s success, at least in part, to a focus on detection, intervention and prevention strategies.

He says the decline in gun violence has meant less victims and paved the way for a higher solve rate for shooting cases — police solved 15 per cent pre-2019 and over 50 per cent this year.

Now, Watts says the main obstacle is keeping the downward trend going — through social and community programming, sustained multi-sector action, and public involvement.

This is particularly important for youth at risk of turning toward organized crime, he said.

“The long-term solutions to gang violence and gun crime are … rooted in many other things, whether it be housing and security, financial and security, environmental factors, and that’s all been spoken about at length.”

Early morning shooting adds to Toronto safety concerns

An early-morning drive-by shooting near a busy downtown Toronto street, a woman killed by a stray bullet in broad daylight and a subway stabbing caught on video are three violent attacks that have left many concerned for their safety.

Advocate hopes to keep violence low in 2024

Louis March, the leader and founder of advocacy group Zero Gun Movement, credits the federal government for increasing border patrols and helping to stop the illegal transportation of guns into the country.

He also credits the involvement of different sectors, such as in health, education, community and social services and children and youth services, as outlined in Toronto’sSafeTO plan initiated in 2021.

“They’re no longer working in silos. There’s a more collaborative approach,” said March.

But while progress has definitely been made, March warns the absence of gun violence could potentially be connected to a surge in other violent offences, like carjackings and robberies.

“The criminal mind does not take a break. It evolves, just like how we evolved and changed our ways,” said March.

Watts contends the issues are separate. But he acknowledged the force has noticed an increase in vehicle theft, which spurred the creation of a provincial task force to tackle the problem.

“Anything where organized crime can make financial gains and make money is essentially where they focus their efforts,” he said.

He says significant investment in community programming, housing, employment and mental health is needed, particularly in areas of the city that have been historically underserved.

“There’s a difference between living in Rosedale and living in Rexdale,” said March.

He says it’s also important to make sure the statistics translate to a feeling of safety and empowerment for residents, particularly in the wake of random violence on the TTC and brazen, one-off daylight shootings that have left innocent victims dead.

“They might find ways in which they can contribute to the [solutions to] gun violence instead of living in fear and despair,” March said.