The warm waters of El Niño are here to stay through the winter, forecasters say, and the pattern could grow quite strong over the months ahead.
El Niño events typically have a noticeable effect on winter weather across Canada, bringing above-seasonal temperatures to some and a risk for rollicking winter storms to others.
Here’s an early look at how El Niño could influence Canada’s weather this winter based on how previous El Niño winters stacked up across the country.
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El Niño builds across the Pacific Ocean
Prevailing winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean usually push warmer surface waters west toward Australia and Indonesia. This steady westward flow allows deeper, cooler ocean waters to rise to the surface near South America.
Sometimes, though, this wind pattern breaks down or even reverses direction, allowing that warm water to surge back east toward South America.
When these unusually toasty water temperatures stick around in the eastern Pacific for more than half a year, the anomaly is called an El Niño, and the warmup can have profound effects on weather patterns across North America.
The strength of an El Niño depends on how warm the water temperatures grow. A strong El Niño could have a greater influence on global weather patterns than a weak El Niño.