Crazy, but it might work

The suspicion is that China is using the long-drawn-out negotiations to further build up its strength in the areas of conflict.

A Code of Conduct without China is unthinkable since the Asian giant is the main protagonist in the dispute. However, since the document crucial to maintaining stability in the region has failed to move for years, an agreement among other claimants may push the process faster.

China’s insistence on its historical claim to practically the entire South China Sea and the non-involvement of third parties in resolving disputes has stalled negotiations on a binding pact.

The foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, and China had agreed on the guidelines for implementing the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, or DoC, which aims to promote peace and stability in the region.

The agreement, however, is non-binding and is strongly skewed in favor of China, but it is the sole document that provides parameters for the maritime friction in the region. Also, it should have paved the way for the CoC.

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in an address in Hawaii on 19 November, said an ASEAN CoC is in the works.

This, however, would appear to be futile since China is not a part of it. China is expected to give it the cold shoulder like it did the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling that invalidated its nine-dash line claim.

China had thus arrogated to itself the authority to decide what applies in the disputed waters — which resulted in its building of illegal structures on territories belonging to other nations.

The advantage of a solely ASEAN CoC is that it would have the credibility that one influenced by China may not have. Such a deal among members of the regional bloc would be strong leverage to get China to finally sign on to a code.

An ASEAN CoC that recognizes the arbitral tribunal award would be an acknowledgment that China had failed to uphold its obligations under settled international law and existing agreements and had infringed on the sovereignty of its ASEAN neighbors.

It would be a pushback against the might of China by the bloc, which has been criticized as having achieved nothing as a community of nations.

Expected to be created is a strong and independently enforceable CoC that ASEAN members can apply to China in maritime disputes.

A Chinese mouthpiece claimed that the Philippines, in working for an ASEAN CoC, is forming a clique “to put more pressure on China rather than exercising self-restraint during the process of negotiations.”

A Chinese publication then revealed Beijing’s strategy of exerting pressure on ASEAN members not to be part of the proposed ASEAN code.

It termed the ongoing negotiations for an ASEAN-China CoC as a “pressure relief valve” to ensure that the disputes among the different parties do not lead to conflicts.

China, however, would be more credible if it gave up its impossible demands to remove the obstacles to the CoC.

Negotiations for the code have languished since 2012, when China and ASEAN member states agreed on a binding deal.

China and the ASEAN nations agreed on a framework for the CoC, outlining key principles and objectives, but since then, nothing has moved.

The suspicion is that China is using the long-drawn-out negotiations to further build its strength in conflict areas.

It intensified the construction of structures and reclamation work in the WPS after the Philippines filed its case with the arbitral tribunal.

“We are still waiting for the CoC between China and ASEAN, and the progress has been rather slow, unfortunately,” Marcos said.

Had China been interested in a regime of rules in the WPS, it would have pushed for the CoC.

Instead, it showed that it is merely buying time to impose what it wants in the sea whose ownership it claims history bestowed upon it.

*****
Credit belongs to: tribune.net.ph