Living in fragile times

The world economy, already rendered fragile by a string of economic shocks, has now been made even more frail by the Israel-Hamas fracas.

In the aftermath of Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel, which left thousands of civilians dead and over 200 taken hostage by the terror group, Israel has retaliated by launching thousands of airstrikes on Gaza even as it laid siege to the territory, preventing food, water, and fuel from getting into the Strip.

And now the ground invasion of Gaza by thousands of Israeli troops has begun.

World news are reporting that Israeli forces are advancing on Gaza even as airstrikes continue to hit the city as part of a strategic effort to create an “aerial umbrella,” with fire from the air providing cover for the soldiers on the ground who, confronted by Hamas terrorists, signal to the aircraft where to attack.

By all indications, the battle on the ground will not only be tough and bloody, it will be a lengthy one.

How and when this violent clash between Israel and Hamas will end, no one knows, but clearly, the armed conflict in that part of the world will prove to be another hard blow to the global order, following as it does so close to the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The outrage Israelis feel over the 7 October brutal attack by Hamas and their determination to eliminate the terror group is understandable.

But here’s the big question: Is eradicating Hamas through military means feasible? What politically strategic accommodation — if any — will be wrought by Israel from the Palestinians after the fighting — assuming that Israel emerges the victor (and we certainly hope they do)?

Above all that, is there any wisdom at all in behaving just as Hamas had so evidently wanted Israel to? Critical questions are those to which no one has any clear answers.

How does Asia fare with all this turmoil in Eastern Europe and the Middle East?

In the meantime, there is unresolved tension in Eastern Europe caused by Russia’s Putin’s continued determination to wrest control of Ukraine.

There is a view among geopolitical observers that if the war in Ukraine and the Middle East spill beyond their regions, this could potentially compromise security in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula, particularly since the US would no longer have the military might to effectively address major conflicts in two places at the same time.

Foreign and international security affairs analyst Hiroyuki Akita queried retired General Mark Milley, then chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the latter’s last trip to Japan on how the US would cope if two or more major wars involving Europe, the Middle East, or Asia broke out simultaneously.

Akita said Milley believes the US will face grave challenges if China invades Taiwan, taking advantage of the turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East, and for the same reason, North Korea sends troops to South Korea.

Milley emphasized that the US and its allies must boost deterrence against the two countries to deter such actions.

The analyst has this dire view that between 1948 and 1973, the world survived four Arab-Israeli wars because the US “had the will and strong leadership needed to maintain stability in the region. Today, it lacks both.”

Before the Hamas attack on Israel and the latter’s retaliation, the US played a major role in restoring equilibrium to the Middle East by mediating a reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Under the plan, the latter, along with other nations in the Gulf, would align with Israel in confronting Iran.

The brutal surprise attack on Israel by Hamas dashed that hope, at least for now.

The world economy, already rendered fragile by a string of economic shocks that included the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s assault on Ukraine, has now been made even more frail by the Israel-Hamas fracas.

“This is the first time that we’ve had two energy shocks at the same time,” said World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill, pointing to the impact of the turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East on oil and gas prices.

As it is, the world is already struggling with high levels of debt, depressed private investments, and highly sluggish recovery in trade, and “these are all happening at the same time,” lamented Gill.

“We are in one of the most fragile junctures for the world economy,” he declared.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase chief honcho Jamie Dimon, who is as close as Wall Street has to a statesman, warned in a statement included in the bank’s quarterly earnings report: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades (with the war between Israel and Hamas having) “far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships.”

*****
Credit belongs to: tribune.net.ph