AFP says ‘flawless’ resupply mission completed at Ayungin Shoal; but was it really hassle-free?

In what seemed to be a refreshing development in the tension-filled South China Sea, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said it has successfully conducted a “flawless” resupply mission for troops manning the BRP Sierra Madre outpost at Ayungin Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) on Friday, Feb. 2.

However, satellite images shown by a maritime security expert proved otherwise: dozens of Chinese vessels were still present in the area during the operation.

In a now-deleted tweet on her X (formerly Twitter) account, AFP spokesperson Col. Francel Margareth Padilla declared: “Mission accomplished! Today, we executed a flawless rotation and resupply operation for BRP Sierra Madre. Teamwork, precision, and dedication at its best.”

The latest resupply mission marked the first completed sea-borne operation to bring food and other provisions to troops at the BRP Sierra Madre outpost. Last week, the AFP opted for an airdrop operation when one of the supply boats used in the runs encountered “technical difficulty”.

If Padilla’s account is to be based, this was a completely positive development for the relations between the Philippines and China’s militaries after a long period of hostile actions during resupply runs and other patrol operations in the West Philippine Sea in the previous years.

Such missions were often marred by China’s blockade operations, firing of water cannon, use of military-grade laser, and ramming incidents among others.

What satellite images show

Ray Powell, director of SeaLight project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, uploaded satellite images of the mission showing that Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels BRP Cabra and BRP Sindangan, which appears to have escorted AFP-chartered supply boat/s like the previous runs, were “met by China Coast Guard 5205” at Sabina Shoal.

Sabina Shoal is approximately 67 kilometers away from Ayungin Shoal.

Meanwhile, China Coast Guard 5205 refers to a ship that had been accused of pointing military-grade laser towards PCG personnel in February 2023.

Further, Powell said that China Coast Guard 5203 was also in the area but went on “dark mode” by turning off its automatic identification system as well as at least 17 Chinese maritime militia vessels, most of which were “waiting” at Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, approximately 38 kilometers from Ayungin Shoal.

So, was it really a “flawless” mission as what the AFP spokesperson had stated?

It appears so, as Powell backed Padilla’s statements by presenting satellite images showing that the resupply mission “seems to have encountered virtually no resistance from China” despite its vessels watching from afar.

“Very different Philippines resupply to [Second] Thomas Shoal. China’s usual blockade hasn’t materialized — almost all militia staying back by Mischief Reef,” Powell said.

“Whatever deal the [two] sides made in Shanghai may have dialed down [China’s] aggression (for now),” he added.

During the eighth “China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea” in Shanghai two weeks ago, the Philippines and China agreed to calmly address their overlapping maritime row in the South China Sea by improving their communication mechanisms.

The AFP, Western Command (WesCom), Department of National Defense (DND), and National Task Force on West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) did not provide further information on the latest resupply mission despite queries from reporters.

But with Padilla’s deleted statement and Powell’s assessment, hopes are up that there will be a more peaceful security situation not only in Ayungin Shoal but also in other parts of the West Philippine Sea.

— Martin Sadongdong