So, the pace of the transition to a central Pacific-based El Niño will significantly shape the national weather pattern during January and February and could be the key to how this winter is remembered, especially across Ontario and Quebec.
If the transition is slow, the early winter pattern will also be the dominant pattern for the season with above above normal temperatures across most of Canada.
Conversely, a rapid transition would dramatically increase the potential for a rather robust finish to winter, featuring more persistent, cold weather later in the season across central and eastern Canada.
As The Weather Network’s official Winter Forecast approaches on Nov. 29, we will monitor the atmosphere’s final alignment with a strong El Niño event, and watch for any movement of the warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the eastern to the central Pacific. Both will be crucial as we refine our final forecast for the upcoming winter.
Check back then to see what’s in store for you!
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With files from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.